Coronavirus: Vast falls in bike sales forecast

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Published on 28 April 2020 by Mike Waters

A new forecast about the future of the motorcycle market throughout 2020 has predicted a huge drop in sales “entirely due to the Coronavirus pandemic”. 

As the BMF has previously reported, this year began well for the powered two-wheeler sector and both January and February saw modest but welcome year-on-year gains.  

However, a new forecast by the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA), a BMF Corporate Member, noted that these gains were completely wiped out in March alone as lockdown measures were brought in to contain the spread of COVID-19As a result, the MCIA found that Q1’s total sales and registrations were ultimately pushed into a 12.2% year-on-year decline despite their promising start 

With Q2 now underway, the MCIA now predicts a year-on-year drop in sales of powered two-wheelers of approximately 58% in this quarter. It went on to predict an element of recovery in Q3, which it estimated at 7.7%. 

For the year as a whole, the MCIA estimated that total sales would be down by a severe 18.2% - representing tens of thousands of machinesLast year only saw 1.5% in growth, which industry observers blamed on “Brexit and other political concerns” such as December’s general election for discouraging consumers from taking a chance on big-ticket items. 

The MCIA noted that this forecast’s conclusions were based on the assumptions that there is “an ease to the lockdown measures by mid-May and a return to something approaching normality by the start of Q3” and that there is “a 12-month postponement of the end of series regulations for Euro 4 vehicles”.  

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